Mustard may top 13.1 million tonnes production target.
After registering a growth of nearly 40 per cent between 2019-20 and 2022-23, mustard production may miss a similar feat this year though the government’s target of a modest 4 per cent rise in production during 2023-24 can be achieved.
Farmers in many small States stayed away while there is no big jump in area seen in large producing States such as Rajasthan or Madhya Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh is the only exception where acreage has jumped 32 per cent until December 22.
Acreage up
The area under mustard and rapeseed has increased to 95.23 lakh hectare (lh) as on December 22, up by 2 per cent from 93.46 lh. While there was a 1.6 lh drop in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh has reported 4.3 lh higher acreage. In absolute terms, there is no big difference elsewhere.
No planting of mustard has been done in Ladakh, Maharashtra, Manipur, Tripura and some other States though normal area together may not even be one lakh hectares, sources said. Though there was a plan to raise areas in the North-East, it has not been successful this year as the total mustard acreage in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Sikkim, Mizoram and Manipur has reached 3.67 lh until last Friday against 3.28 lh an yearago, whereas the normal area is 3.82 lh.
Conducive weather
Admitting that it is not possible to achieve the same growth that has been accomplished in the last three years, PK Rai, Director of Bharatpur-based Directorate of Rapeseed-Mustard Research, said the weather has been very conducive so far and it is possible to achieve the targetted production. ‘Diseases like white rust and others play an important role in disrupting mustard yield. Fortunately, there is no such report from anywhere about any pest attack on mustard. The impact of El Nino, as was speculated, is yet not seen on the ground, so far. If the weather remains conducive for the next two months, it is possible to achieve the targetted production,’ Rai told the businessline.
Rajasthan situation
He also said that Rajasthan plays an important role as any changes in the State also has a resultant impact on the country’s overall mustard production, since it has a large area under this winter oilseed crop (40-45 per cent).
The Agriculture Ministry has set the mustard production target at 131.4 lakh tonnes (lt) for 2023-24 crop year (July-June), up from estimated actual output of 126.43 lt in 2022-23. Mustard production was 91.24 lt in 2019-20. Jodhpur-based Bhagirath Choudhary, Founder-Director of South Asia Biotechnology Centre, said that several farmers in Rajasthan have shifted to spices crops from mustard and, as a result, the fall in acreage could be even higher than the government estimate.
‘Tremendous negative sentiment exists about mustard in traditional mustard-growing areas due to higher than normal temperature and prevailing lower market price. Farmers have shifted to spices such as cumin, fennel and isabgol.
Additionally, El Nino effects are already felt in this season with higher than normal temperature, no winter precipitation and absence of foggy conditions which would ultimately reduce duration of harvest, possibly impacting overall yield in northern parts,’ said Choudhary. But, Rampal Jat, president of Kisan Mahapanchayat, is hopeful of a better yield and higher production of mustard despite a fall in acreage. At the same time, he has sought 100 per cent procurement of mustard by the government at the minimum support price (MSP) which will motivate farmers to stick to the crop or rather increase the area. Recalling the dropsy episode of 1998, Jat said, ‘The Centre’s policy plays an important role in prices of mustard and the government should ensure that domestic farmers are supported with assured purchase at MSP rather than helping soyabean growers of the US or palm oil farmers of Indonesia.
This article has been republished from The Hindu Business Line.