EU 2024/25 wheat crop forecast held at 4-year low, stocks outlook raised

By Reuters

The European Commission on Thursday kept unchanged its monthly forecast of the European Union’s main wheat crop in 2024/25 at a four-low, but raised its stocks outlook on bigger than expected supplies left over from this season.

As in April, the Commission pegged EU usable production of common wheat, or soft wheat, in 2024/25 at 120.2 million metric tons. That was 4% below this season’s level and the smallest since 2020/21 when the crop was also affected by heavy rain.

However, it increased its forecast of EU soft wheat stocks at the end of 2024/25 to 13.5 million tons from 12.2 million tons last month due to an higher projection of supplies this season.

Soft wheat stocks at the end of the current 2023/24 season were now expected at 21.4 million tons, against 20.4 million forecast last month. That in turn reflected an upward revision to expected EU imports in 2023/24, now seen at 9.5 million tons compared with 7.5 million previously.

Expected soft wheat imports, which have become a flashpoint in the EU due to an influx of Ukrainian grain, were also revised up by 0.5 million tons for 2024/25 but were seen well below this year’s level at 5.0 million tons.

The increased imports outweighed upward adjustments to soft wheat export forecasts. The Commission upped its export outlook by 0.5 million tons to 31.5 million for 2023/24 and by 0.1 million to 31.1 million for 2024/25.

In other cereals, the Commission increased its forecast of 2024/25 usable barley production in the EU to 53.9 million tons from 53.6 million last month, and trimmed its EU maize crop forecast to 68.6 million from 69 million tons.

In oilseeds, projected EU rapeseed production in 2024/25 was cut to 19.1 million tons from 19.4 million previously.

This article has been republished from The Mint.