USDA: May WASDE predicts soybean oil use in biofuel will expand for 2025-‘26
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA reduced its estimate for 2024-’25 soybean use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released May 12. The agency, however, expects soybean oil use in biofuel to increase during the 2025-’26 marketing year.
The USDA’s current 2025-’26 outlook for U.S. soybeans shows slightly lower supplies, higher crush, reduced exports, and lower ending stocks when compared to 2024-’25. The soybean crop is projected lower at 4.34 billion bushels with trend yield and lower area. With higher beginning stocks but lower exports and production, soybean supplies are down less than 1% from 2024-’25.
U.S. soybean crush for 2025-’26 is projected at 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million from the 2024-’25 forecast with higher soybean meal disappearance and exports.
The USDA predicts 13.9 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2025-’26. The agency currently estimates soybean oil use in biofuel production was at 13.1 billion pounds for 2024-’25, down from last month’s outlook of 13.25 billion pounds. Soybean oil use for biofuel production was at12.989 billion pounds for 2023-’24.
Soybean oil exports for 2025-’26 are expected to decline on higher global supplies of palm oil, sunflowerseed oil and rapeseed oil. U.S> soybean oil stocks are estimated to expand by 6% when compared to 2024-’25.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2025-‘26 are projected at 295 million bushels, down 55 million from the revised 2024-‘25 forecast. The 2025-‘26 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.25 per bushel, compared with $9.95 per bushel in 2024-‘25. The soybean meal price is forecast at $310 per short ton, up $10. The soybean oil price is forecast at 46 cents per pound, up 1 cent from the prior year.
Global soybean production for 2025-‘26 is forecast at 426.8 million tons, up 1%, with higher production for Brazil, Paraguay, Russia, and China partly offset by lower production for the U.S., Canada, Argentina, Ukraine, and Uruguay. Brazil’s soybean production is projected at a record 175 million tons, up 6 million from the prior year. Argentina’s soybean production is forecast at 48.5 million tons, down 500,000 tons, as area shifts from soybeans to corn.
Global 2025-‘26 soybean crush is expected to grow 3% to 366.5 million tons, with most of the growth for China, the U.S., Brazil, Egypt, Pakistan, Argentina, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam. Overall, the highest growth in oilseed meal exports is soybean meal for the U.S. and Argentina and sunflowerseed meal for Ukraine.
Global soybean exports for 2025-‘26 are expected to increase 4% to 188.4 million tons from 2024-‘25. Exports of major South American soybean-producing countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) are expected to rise 8.5 million tons, more than offsetting lower U.S. exports. Global imports are increased for Argentina on higher supplies in neighboring countries and in China, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Mexico, and Algeria. Soybean imports for China are up 4 million tons from the revised 2024-‘25 import forecast at 112 million. Global ending stocks are up 1.2 million tons to 124.3 million, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil and Argentina partly offset by lower U.S. stocks.
This article has been republished from The Biodiesel Magazine.