Weak monsoon may hit pulses, soybean and cotton hardest; rice better cushioned by irrigation

By ISHAAN GERA

A below-normal monsoon forecast for 2026 could disproportionately hurt India’s pulses, soybean and cotton output, as production of these crops is concentrated in states with relatively weaker irrigation coverage, according to a Moneycontrol analysis of crop concentration and irrigated area data.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on April 13 projected monsoon rainfall at 92 percent of the long-period average (LPA), its weakest preliminary forecast in nearly 26 years. A deficient monsoon raises risks to sowing, yields and rural demand, while also adding pressure on food inflation.

While irrigated states may also face risks, with recharge lower and reservoirs not filling up for the rabi season, a larger challenge lies for states that rely more on the monsoon.

Reservoir levels were comfortable until April 2, with storage 27 percent above normal, and only the eastern region was facing a shortage.

Among major crops, soybean appears most vulnerable. Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh together account for 83.6 percent of India’s soybean output. Maharashtra alone contributes 48.3 percent, but has irrigation coverage of only 43.3 percent, below the national average of 59.9 percent. Madhya Pradesh, which contributes 35.3 percent, has higher irrigation at 60.2 percent.

Cotton also faces elevated risk, with Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh accounting for 66.1 percent of national output. Maharashtra, the single largest producer at 24.8 percent, has relatively low irrigation at 43.3 percent, while Gujarat has stronger irrigation coverage at 70.6 percent.

Tur is the most exposed among pulses. Maharashtra and Karnataka together contribute 66.8 percent of India’s production, and both states have irrigation coverage of 43.3 percent. Jharkhand, which contributes 7 percent, has the weakest irrigation coverage among major producing states at 17.2 percent.

At the aggregate level, pulses production remains highly vulnerable. Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh together account for 81.8 percent of total pulses output. Of these, only Madhya Pradesh has irrigation above the national average.

Maize, groundnut, bajra and jowar also face weather-linked risks, though their exposure is somewhat more mixed due to higher irrigation in some producing states such as Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.

Rice, by contrast, appears relatively better insulated nationally because a large share of output comes from better-irrigated states. Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh together account for 32.7 percent of India’s rice output, with irrigation coverage ranging from 59.9 percent to 72.9 percent. However, Chhattisgarh and Odisha, which together contribute 15 percent, remain more exposed with irrigation below 35 percent.

The crop risk profile comes as economists warn that weaker rainfall could complicate India’s inflation trajectory in FY27.

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA Ltd, said the sub-par monsoon outlook, combined with tensions in West Asia, creates material upside risks to inflation and downside risks to GDP growth. She said average CPI inflation in FY27 could exceed 4.5 percent despite comfortable reservoir levels.

India’s retail inflation rose to 3.4 percent in March 2026 from 3.2 percent in February, though it remained below the Reserve Bank of India’s 4 percent target.

Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge, said CPI inflation could average 4.6 per cent in FY27, in line with the RBI’s projection, with higher oil prices and El Niño-related weather risks adding pressure.

This article has been republished from The Moneycontrol.com